The operating manual for how RJALPHA fits together
Use this page as the source of truth for how the dashboard connects, which tools belong to which user profile, and what the AI must separate before giving sizing or portfolio guidance.
Answer in this order
What risk level are you following right now?
The same market read should lead to different actions for Level 1 versus Level 5.
Are you timing entries and exits, or are you always invested?
Levels 1-3 can move to cash. Levels 4-5 stay invested and rotate instead.
Are you managing an existing portfolio or deploying fresh capital?
For always-invested users, BTC Cycle guides fresh capital, not forced exits from the core book.
Are you asking about spot rotation or leverage safety?
Asset Dominance decides spot rotation. Leverage Risk Gauge decides whether leverage is even allowed.
Timing-based users are not the same as always-invested users
Levels 1-3 use HODL Index as the action layer for in-or-out decisions, while macro and regime charts stay contextual. Levels 4-5 never exit the existing portfolio to cash and manage risk through rotation, defensive posture, and fresh-capital pacing.
HODL Index and BTC Cycle answer different questions
HODL Index is the action and allocation layer for timing-based users. BTC Cycle is the long-cycle valuation and deployment layer. For always-invested users, BTC Cycle controls fresh capital aggression, not blanket exit calls.
Asset Dominance and Leverage Risk Gauge must never be merged
Asset Dominance tells you which major asset deserves the spot overweight. Leverage Risk Gauge tells you whether short-term conditions are safe enough to add leverage on top. One is rotation. The other is a safety gate.
Causal buckets
Read the dashboard in connected layers
Sovereign Debt and Refinancing
Debt issuance is the start of the plumbing. Maturity pressure changes auction intensity, auction stress affects bond volatility, and bond volatility changes collateral capacity through the multiplier.
Credit Transmission and Liquidity
Transmission explains whether liquidity is actually flowing. CLI compresses the credit picture. GLI is the broad system-liquidity anchor and feeds the dashboard's main valuation models.
Valuation and Confirmation
These charts turn the liquidity story into price context. Use them for expectation management, not blind signals. They matter most when they confirm each other.
Macro, Regime, and Cycle
Macro and regime charts set posture and context. BTC Cycle gives long-cycle valuation. HODL Index, not macro regime alone, turns that into a timing-based allocation framework for users who can move between BTC and cash.
Asset Selection and Execution
Asset Dominance and Capital Allocation drive spot rotation. Leverage Risk Gauge gates leverage. Alt League ranks alt opportunities. VAMS helps with timing around the chosen posture.
Portfolio frameworks
Five levels, two operating modes
Steady
Positioning
Spot BTC only. Can hold cash when HODL says exit.
HODL Index is the primary action signal.
BTC Cycle can support DCA depending on accumulation style.
Never introduce rotation, leverage, or altcoin logic.
Rotation
Positioning
Spot majors only. Can hold cash when timing says step aside.
HODL Index decides when to be in or out.
Asset Dominance decides which major asset gets the spot overweight.
Do not introduce leverage or Alt League.
Active
Positioning
Spot majors plus small leverage and alt sleeves, still governed by timing.
HODL Index is the master timing switch.
Asset Dominance drives spot rotation.
Leverage Risk Gauge must confirm before any leverage.
Committed
Positioning
Spot majors only. Existing portfolio stays invested and rotates.
Never recommend exiting the existing portfolio to cash.
Use BTC Cycle for fresh capital pacing only.
Use Asset Dominance to decide which major asset stays overweight while BTC Cycle only controls fresh-capital pacing.
Full Spectrum
Positioning
Always-invested core plus selective leverage and alt sleeves.
Existing portfolio stays invested and rotates.
BTC Cycle controls fresh capital aggression, not core-book exits.
Leverage stays capped and gated per asset by Leverage Risk Gauge.
Common failure modes
Do not tell always-invested users to size down the core book just because BTC Cycle is expensive
Levels 4-5 stay invested. When cycle conditions are expensive, the correct response is usually slower fresh-capital deployment while spot rotation still follows Asset Dominance, not generic sell-to-cash advice.
Do not use Leverage Risk Gauge as a spot-rotation answer
A user can keep a spot overweight in the dominant asset while leverage remains RISK_OFF. The leverage gate controls borrowed exposure, not the entire spot book.
Do not dump all five risk levels when the user needs one answer
Ask one short clarifying question if risk level is unknown. After that, answer within the chosen framework instead of listing every portfolio path.